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In Futurity, Someone Prophetic Sees

  • Nostradamus never predicted that people would remember him 500 years later, but his reputation for accurate prophecies has nonetheless flourished for centuries. Discuss with your team: why do people want to know their future in advance? Would it benefit them if they did? If someone offered you the opportunity to read a biography of your life, would you?

  • Some poets have also taken a swing at predicting the future. Consider the selections below, then discuss with your team: how seriously were they intended to tell the future? Is poetry (with its often murky meanings) the perfect vehicle for prophecy?

  • Anthropologists believe that this sort of divination is a practice as old as Neolithic humans. Look briefly (no rabbit holes, please) into the following ancient divination techniques, then discuss with your team: which are still practiced today, and, if they seem hard to believe now, why do you think so many people once believed in them?

    • comparative horoscopy | haruspicy | ornithomancy | alectryomancy

    • pyro-osteomancy | oneiromancy | bibliomancy | hydromancy

    • astragalomancy | scyphomancy | astrology

  • Firefighter, astronaut, investment banker—diviner of the future? If you’re thinking about future careers, consider a career in thinking about the future. Explore the following future-telling occupations, then discuss with your team: should governments regulate this industry, and, if so, how?

    • palmistry | physiognomy | ceromancy | tasseography | cartomancy

    • fortune teller | oracle | soothsayer | shaman | witch | clairvoyant

    • Ifá | Jyotish | I Ching | Bazi | Jiaobei | omikuji | Ouija | crystal ball

    • fortune cookies | horoscopes

  • Not all fortune tellers are mystics. Michio Kaku is an award-winning theoretical physicist whose side business is predicting the future in books like Physics of the Future and The Future of Humanity. Explore some of his predictions, then discuss with your team: which of his predictions do you find too alarmist? Which ones do you most look forward to?

  • While those predicting the future cast their gaze forward to tomorrow and the days after, some artists cast their gaze (and occasionally their glaze) toward those making the predictions. Review the following artworks with your team, then discuss with your team: what are they trying to tell us?Art

  • Music

    • Georges Bizet | “Trio des Cartes” (1875)

    • Carl Orff | “O Fortuna” (1935)

    • Benny Spellman | “Fortune Teller” (1962)

    • Al Stewart | “Nostradamus” (1973)

    • Suzanne Vega | “Predictions” (1990)

  • Certain methods of divination seem more reliable than they are. Explore the following examples and terms, then discuss with your team: why is divination enjoying a resurgence amongst young people today? Is the future trending?

    • Barnum effect | Pygmalion effect | cold reading | confirmation bias | self-fulfilling prophecy

  • Did you freely choose to read this bullet, or were you always bound to find yourself puzzling over it at this very moment? Explore the age-old debate between those who believe we have free will and those who believe we live in a deterministic universe, then discuss with your team: how much does it matter whether we are making choices for ourselves? Is it possible that some people have more free will than others? And, if criminals are not really choosing to be criminals, should they still be punished? Be sure to learn the differences between genetic, biological, and other forms of determinism.

  • Not all methods of foretelling the future are rooted in superstition or ritual; some stem from long-term observations and lived experiences. For example, the Chinese agricultural calendar is based on centuries observing the weather and the movement of celestial bodies. The result is a calendar that reliably predicts the movements of the sun and moon, ocean tides, astronomical events, and the turning of the seasons—one still referenced by farmers today. Research the following and explore with your team: are there any other reliable not-quite scientific methods of predicting the future that merit continued study?

    • Aztec agricultural calendar | Mayan cyclical calendars | zodiac | solar terms

    • computus | saros | Metonic cycle | Antikythera mechanism

  • Your weather app predicts a warm and dry afternoon; you wear a summer dress and you wind up drenched by an unexpected afternoon rainstorm. Research how meteorologists make weather forecasts and explore with your team: how far ahead in time is a weather forecast useful? How might AI prediction models change the field of meteorology? Be sure to also learn the difference between weather and climate models, and if they are still accurate in face of a changing climate.

  • A butterfly flaps its wings and a hurricane (eventually) pops to life on the other side of the world. Small changes can have large impacts that may not be as random (or unpredictable) as they seem. Explore the field of chaos theory, which attempts to understand how complex systems are built up from simple parts, then discuss with your team: are there examples of such systems in society, and can they help us tell the future? Be sure to explore the following terms:

    • emergence | self-organization | de-centralization | feedback | determinism

    • chaotic systems | sensitivity | flocking model | three-body problem | fractals

    • randomness | parameters | stable vs. unstable equilibria

  • “Ripped jeans will be back in fashion in 20 years”, says one pundit. “We’ve been in a decade-long bull market, but just you wait for the bear market”, says another. Research the following popular “cycles” in public discourse today and explore with your team: what do they purport to predict, and how accurate are their predictions? Can a popular “cycle” ever become a scientific model?

    • fashion cycle | nostalgia cycle | news cycle | business cycle

    • market cycle | Moore’s law | Eroom’s law | platform decay

    • bathtub curve of electronics | nomadic war machine

  • Nostradamus did not know that people would still talk about him after 500 years. But his predictions made him famous. Talk with your team: Why do people want to know the future? Would it help them? If you could read a book about your life before it happens, would you?

  • Some poets have tried to guess the future. Read the poems below, then talk with your team: Did these poets really want to predict the future? Is poetry a good way to make predictions?

    • Poems by: Horace, Yeats, Frost, Dickinson.

  • People have tried to tell the future for a long time. Look at these old ways of fortune-telling, then talk with your team: Are they still used today? If not, why did people believe in them before?

    • Old ways to tell the future: reading stars, looking at animal guts, watching birds, reading fire and bones, reading dreams, books, water, dice, or cups.

  • Some people have jobs telling the future. Talk with your team: Should the government control this business? If yes, how?

    • Fortune-telling jobs: palm reader, face reader, candle wax reader, tea leaf reader, card reader, fortune teller, oracle, shaman, witch, clairvoyant.

    • Cultural fortune-telling: Ifá, Jyotish, I Ching, Bazi, Jiaobei, omikuji, Ouija, crystal ball, fortune cookies, horoscopes.

  • Not all future predictions come from magic. Michio Kaku is a scientist who writes books about the future. Read about his ideas and talk with your team: Which ideas seem too scary? Which ones are exciting?

  • Artists and musicians have shown fortune-telling in their work. Look at the paintings and songs below, then talk with your team: What do they say about predicting the future?

    • Paintings: Caravaggio, Georges de la Tour, Vrubel, Romero de Torres, Schjerfbeck, Cuevas.

    • Music: Bizet, Orff, Spellman, Stewart, Vega.

  • Some ways to predict the future seem real, but they are not. Look at the ideas below, then talk with your team: Why do young people like fortune-telling today? Is the future a trend?

    • Mind tricks: Barnum effect, Pygmalion effect, cold reading, confirmation bias, self-fulfilling prophecy.

  • Do we choose what we do, or is everything decided already? Talk with your team: Does it matter? Should criminals be punished if they had no choice?

  • Not all future predictions are magic. Farmers in China still use the Chinese agricultural calendar because it follows the sun, moon, and seasons. Look at other old ways of predicting time and talk with your team: Are they useful?

  • Weather forecasts help us, but they are not always right. Talk with your team: How far can we predict the weather? How can AI help?

  • Small things can make big changes. Chaos theory studies how small actions create big results. Look at the ideas below, then talk with your team: Can this help us predict the future?

  • Some people believe in cycles—in fashion, money, and history. Talk with your team: Do cycles really predict the future? Can they become science?

  • Nostradamus never guessed that people would still talk about him 500 years later. But his predictions have made him famous for centuries. Discuss with your team: Why do people want to know their future? Would it help them if they did? If you could read a book about your whole life in advance, would you?

  • Poets have also tried to predict the future. Read the poems below, then talk with your team: Were these poets really trying to tell the future? Is poetry, with its hidden meanings, a good way to make predictions?

    • Horace | Ode I. 11 (23 BCE)

    • William Butler Yeats | The Second Coming (1919)

    • Robert Frost | Fire and Ice (1920)

    • Emily Dickinson | The Future—never spoke (1921)

  • Since ancient times, people have used different methods to predict the future. Look at the techniques below, then discuss with your team: Which ones are still used today? If some seem strange now, why did people believe in them before?

    • Ancient divination methods: horoscopy, haruspicy, ornithomancy, alectryomancy, pyro-osteomancy, oneiromancy, bibliomancy, hydromancy, astragalomancy, scyphomancy, astrology.

  • Can predicting the future be a job? Some people study and practice future-telling. Explore the careers below and discuss with your team: Should governments control or limit this industry? If so, how?

    • Fortune-telling careers: palm reader, face reader, candle wax reader, tea leaf reader, card reader, fortune teller, oracle, soothsayer, shaman, witch, clairvoyant.

    • Cultural fortune-telling: Ifá, Jyotish, I Ching, Bazi, Jiaobei, omikuji, Ouija, crystal ball, fortune cookies, horoscopes.

  • Not all future predictions come from mystics. Michio Kaku, a famous scientist, predicts the future in books like Physics of the Future and The Future of Humanity. Read about his ideas and discuss: Which predictions seem too extreme? Which ones are exciting?

  • Artists and musicians have also explored the idea of fortune telling. Look at these works, then discuss with your team: What do they say about predicting the future?

    • Paintings: Caravaggio, The Fortune Teller (c. 1595); Georges de la Tour, The Fortune Teller (c. 1630); Michael Vrubel, The Fortune Teller (1895); Julio Romero de Torres, The Fortune Teller (1922); Helena Sofia Schjerfbeck, The Fortune Teller (Woman in a Yellow Dress) (1926); Jose Luis Cuevas, Dreams of Rasputin (1968).

    • Music: Georges Bizet, Trio des Cartes (1875); Carl Orff, O Fortuna (1935); Benny Spellman, Fortune Teller (1962); Al Stewart, Nostradamus (1973); Suzanne Vega, Predictions (1990).

  • Some prediction methods seem more reliable than they really are. Explore the ideas below, then discuss: Why are so many young people interested in fortune-telling today? Does the future follow a trend?

    • Psychological effects: Barnum effect, Pygmalion effect, cold reading, confirmation bias, self-fulfilling prophecy.

  • Do we choose our actions, or is everything already decided? Explore the debate about free will vs. determinism, then discuss: Does it matter if we truly make our own choices? Is it possible that some people have more free will than others? If criminals do not really choose their actions, should they still be punished?

    • Stories on determinism: Ted Chiang, What’s Expected of Us (2005); C. Robert Cargill, Sea of Rust (2007); Sam Hughes, I Don’t Know, Timmy, Being God Is a Big Responsibility (2007).

  • Not all ways of predicting the future come from superstition. Some come from careful observation. The Chinese agricultural calendar is based on years of watching the sun, moon, and seasons. Farmers still use it today. Explore the methods below, then discuss: Are there other useful ways to predict the future that deserve more study?

    • Scientific forecasting methods: Aztec agricultural calendar, Mayan cyclical calendars, zodiac, solar terms, computus, saros, Metonic cycle, Antikythera mechanism.

  • Weather forecasts help us prepare for the future, but they are not always right. Research how weather predictions work, then discuss: How far ahead can a weather forecast be useful? How might AI improve weather predictions? What is the difference between weather and climate models?

  • Small changes can create big effects over time. Chaos theory studies how simple actions can cause complex results. Explore the ideas below, then discuss: Are there examples of chaos theory in society? Can this help us predict the future?

    • Chaos theory concepts: emergence, self-organization, decentralization, feedback, determinism, chaotic systems, sensitivity, flocking model, three-body problem, fractals, randomness, parameters, stable vs. unstable equilibria.

  • People often talk about cycles—in fashion, economics, and history. Research the cycles below, then discuss: Do they truly predict the future? Can a popular cycle ever become a scientific model?

    • Common cycles: fashion cycle, nostalgia cycle, news cycle, business cycle, market cycle, Moore’s law, Eroom’s law, platform decay, bathtub curve of electronics, nomadic war machine.

  • 诺查丹玛斯从未预言过人们会在 500 年后仍然记得他，但他因准确预言而享有的声誉却在几个世纪里经久不衰。与团队讨论：为什么人们想要提前知道自己的未来？如果他们真的知道了未来，会对他们有好处吗？如果有人给你机会阅读你自己的人生传记，你会愿意吗？

  • 一些诗人也尝试预测未来。阅读以下选段，然后与团队讨论：这些诗作在多大程度上是严肃地试图预测未来的？诗歌（以其通常隐晦的含义）是否是预言的完美载体？
    霍拉斯 | 《颂歌 I.11》（公元前 23 年）
    威廉·巴特勒·叶芝 | 《第二次降临》（1919 年）
    罗伯特·弗罗斯特 | 《火与冰》（1920 年）
    艾米莉·狄金森 | 《未来——从未言说》（1921 年）

  • 人类学家认为，这类占卜行为早在人类新石器时代就已存在。简单了解以下古代占卜术（不要陷入信息深渊！），然后与团队讨论：哪些仍然被人们实践？如果现在看来难以置信，为什么曾经有那么多人相信它们？
    比较占星术 | 内脏占卜 | 鸟卜 | 鸡啄占卜
    火骨占卜 | 解梦术 | 圣书占卜 | 水占卜
    骰占卜 | 杯占卜 | 占星术

  • 消防员、宇航员、投资银行家——未来的预测者？如果你正在思考未来的职业选择，不妨考虑一份与预测未来相关的职业。探索以下预测类职业，然后与团队讨论：政府是否应该监管这一行业？如果是，该如何监管？
    手相学 | 面相学 | 蜡滴占卜 | 茶叶占卜 | 纸牌占卜
    算命师 | 先知 | 预言家 | 萨满 | 巫师 | 千里眼
    易经 | 占星术 | 八字 | 筊杯 | 御神签 | 碟仙 | 水晶球
    幸运饼干 | 星座运势

  • 并非所有的预言者都是神秘主义者。
    米丘·卡库（Michio Kaku）是一位屡获殊荣的理论物理学家，他在《未来物理学》（Physics of the Future）和《人类的未来》（The Future of Humanity）等书中预测未来。研究他的部分预测，并与团队讨论：你认为他的哪些预测过于危言耸听？哪些是你最期待的？

  • 虽然预测未来的人将目光投向明天及其后的日子，但一些艺术家则将目光（有时甚至是釉彩）投向这些预言者。
    与团队一起观看以下艺术作品，并讨论：它们试图告诉我们什么？

  • 艺术
    卡拉瓦乔 | 《算命先生》（约 1595 年）
    乔治·德·拉图尔 | 《算命先生》（约 1630 年）
    米哈伊尔·伏鲁贝尔 | 《算命先生》（1895 年）
    胡里奥·罗梅罗·德·托雷斯 | 《算命先生》（1922 年）
    海伦娜·索菲娅·谢尔夫贝克 | 《算命先生（黄衣女子）》（1926 年）
    何塞·路易斯·奎瓦斯 | 《拉斯普京之梦》（1968 年）

  • 音乐
    乔治·比才 | 《纸牌三重奏》（1875 年）
    卡尔·奥尔夫 | 《哦，命运》（1935 年）
    本尼·斯佩尔曼 | 《算命先生》（1962 年）
    艾尔·斯图尔特 | 《诺查丹玛斯》（1973 年）
    苏珊娜·维加 | 《预言》（1990 年）

  • 某些占卜方法比它们看起来更可靠。
    探索以下概念，并与团队讨论：为什么占卜在年轻人中再次流行？未来真的有趋势吗？
    巴纳姆效应 | 皮格马利翁效应 | 冷读术 | 确认偏误 | 自我实现预言

  • 你是自由选择阅读这个段落的吗，还是你注定会在这个时刻思考这个问题？
    探索自由意志与决定论之间的古老辩论，并与团队讨论：我们是否真的在自主做出选择？是否可能有些人比其他人拥有更多的自由意志？如果罪犯并非真正选择成为罪犯，他们还应当受到惩罚吗？了解基因决定论、生物决定论及其他形式的决定论之间的区别。
    特德·姜 | 《人们对我们的期待》（2005 年）
    C·罗伯特·卡吉尔 | 《铁锈之海》（2007 年节选）
    萨姆·休斯 | 《我不知道，蒂米，成为上帝可是个大责任》（2007 年）

  • 并非所有预测未来的方法都根植于迷信或仪式，有些则来自长期观察和经验总结。
    例如，中国的农历节气基于几百年来对天气和天体运动的观察，至今仍被农民参考。研究以下内容，并与团队讨论：是否还有其他类似的、值得继续研究的非科学预测方法？
    阿兹特克农业历法 | 玛雅循环历 | 黄道十二宫 | 二十四节气
    复活节计算法 | 沙罗周期 | 美冬尼周期 | 安提凯希拉机械

  • 你的天气应用预测下午温暖干燥，你穿上夏装，结果被突如其来的暴雨淋湿。
    研究气象学家如何进行天气预测，并与团队讨论：天气预报最多能预测多久？人工智能预测模型会如何改变气象学？了解天气模型与气候模型的区别，以及气候变化是否影响它们的准确性。

  • 一只蝴蝶扇动翅膀，最终在世界的另一端引发飓风。
    研究混沌理论，该理论试图理解复杂系统如何由简单部分构建而成。然后，与团队讨论：社会中是否存在这样的系统？它们能帮助我们预测未来吗？了解以下概念：
    涌现 | 自组织 | 去中心化 | 反馈 | 决定论
    混沌系统 | 敏感性 | 群体运动模型 | 三体问题 | 分形
    随机性 | 参数 | 稳定与不稳定平衡

  • “破洞牛仔裤将在 20 年后再次流行”，某位评论员说。
    “我们经历了长达十年的牛市，但等着看熊市吧”，另一位评论员说。研究以下当今流行的“周期”，并与团队讨论：它们声称能预测什么？它们的预测有多准确？一个流行的“周期”能否成为科学模型？
    时尚周期 | 怀旧周期 | 新闻周期 | 经济周期
    市场周期 | 摩尔定律 | 逆摩尔定律 | 平台衰退
    电子产品的浴缸曲线 | 游牧战争机器

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